How do I interpret the seasonal trough in feasts::feat_stl?

How do I interpret the seasonal trough in the feasts::feat_stl function in R, and what does it indicate about the underlying time series data?

Great question! Interpreting the seasonal trough in the feasts::feat_stl function in R helps you understand patterns in your time series data. Here's a breakdown:

Seasonal Trough Interpretation: Definition: A trough is the lowest point in a seasonal cycle, occurring at regular intervals depending on the seasonality of your data (e.g., monthly, quarterly).

Indication: The seasonal trough highlights the period when your time series exhibits its lowest value, indicating a recurring pattern. For instance, in retail sales, this could be the time of the year when sales are typically at their lowest.

Analysis: Look at the timing and magnitude of the troughs:

Timing: Identify the specific period (e.g., month, quarter) when the trough occurs. This can help in planning and forecasting.

Magnitude: Evaluate how deep the troughs are compared to the peaks. This gives insights into the variability of your data.

What It Indicates About Your Data: Seasonal Patterns: The presence of troughs suggests a recurring seasonal pattern in your data.

Business Cycles: It can help identify business cycles and understand periods of low activity.

Forecasting: Recognizing these patterns can improve forecasting accuracy by accounting for expected seasonal lows.